Dubai International Cricket Stadium has a reputation that precedes it. The pitch offers genuine pace and carry, especially in the first half of the innings, before it flattens out. Afghanistan, with their aggressive top order and reliance on spinners, will find the early conditions challenging if they bat first. Sri Lanka's pace attack, led by whoever takes the new ball, could exploit that hardness.
The evening slot — likely around 4pm start given the March scheduling — brings dew into the equation. That's a two-edged sword. The ball skids on, making pace bowling lethal in the powerplay, but as dew sets in during the death overs, batting becomes easier and bowlers struggle for purchase. Expect Sri Lanka to prioritise winning the toss. They'll want to chase, banking on conditions suiting their batting in the latter stages.
For Afghanistan, the pitch's behaviour against spin matters. Rashid Khan and company operate best on turning pitches, but Dubai's surfaces don't offer much turn early on. They may need to back their hitters harder than usual. Sri Lanka's selection will likely lean towards an extra pacer over a fourth spinner, given the conditions favour seam movement in the powerplay.
The team that adapts quickest to Dubai's pace-first character and manages the dew intelligently will likely win. For Afghanistan, batting first and putting runs on the board is safer. For Sri Lanka, chasing in familiar, dampening conditions makes more sense.